Thursday, February 9, 2012

TfL Junction Cycle Safety Review

Boris has re-announced the junction review he was stampeded into because of the outcry last year over the fatalities at the Bow Roundabout.

The review includes junctions on the existing Superhighways, plus 150 major junctions on the TLRN (Transport for London Road Network). For most improvements we'll have to wait till after the Olympic Games, cuz after all cycle safety is a lot less important than the ability of the big cheeses and corporate sponsors such as Dow Chemical to cruise from their Mayfair hotels to the Games venues in their BMW limos without delay.

But enough carping about the timetable, time to carp about the whole misconceived process.

Currently, almost all cycle routes in London are crap. If you improve the junctions, you'll have better junctions, but still connected by crap cycle routes - intermittent narrow, advisory lanes punctuated by parked vehicles. Anyone with an ounce (25g) of sense  can see that reviewing hundreds of junctions and digging them up is going to cost a fortune if you do it properly. That's a waste of money if you end up with cycle routes that taken end-to-end are no more appealing. I'll be difficult to improve junctions measurably without impacting traffic capacity; therefore you will create a situation where you've reduced traffic capacity without providing an alternative (subjectively safe cycle routes) to tempt people out of their cars.

What we need instead is a strategy that involves more than just junctions, and it must involve more than just the TLRN. We need to end up with a network of cycle routes that enables people to cycle to work, school or the shops in subjectively safe, pleasant surroundings via routes that are easy to follow and don't take them ridiculously out of their way. This will involve all the things they do in countries that do it successfully: filtered permeability to reduce through traffic on minor roads, shared spaces, and where the route follows a major road, segregated lanes.

Next, let's look at the steering group that has the job of overseeing the junction review process. It consists of:


  • TfL
  • Freight Transport Association 
  • Living Streets 
  • London Cycling Campaign 
  • Roadpeace 
  • SUSTRANS
  • Road Haulage Association 
  • Institute of Advanced Motorists 
  • London Technical Advisors Group 
  • Metropolitan Police Service
So, we have not one but two representatives of the haulage industry. They have no real interest in cycling, but a lot of interest in traffic flow.

Although the Institute of Advanced Motorists does good work around safety, it is at the end of the day a motoring organization.

TfL are responsible for the mess we're in now. As I pointed out before on this blog, there is a real risk that they simply cannot make the change from thinking exclusively about traffic flow to thinking about cycle safety. They don't have the skills, the mindset or the track record, plus there's a lot of skeletons in their cupboard (like the safety reviews they've ignored for Bow and Kings Cross) that they'd rather keep covered up. In other words, will they be more concerned with dodging blame?

Metropolitan Police Service - on the one hand, they have first-hand experience of having to deal with the consequences of TfL's handiwork. If they spent less time attending serious collisions, they could spend more time cracking crime. On they other hand, the Met is a pretty car-centric organization, and there are many in the service who don't take cycling or cyclists seriously. If you don't believe me, ask Martin Porter.

Sustrans is one of the few organizations that have a creditable record in terms of implementing cycle routes, so are a welcome group member.

Roadpeace are solely focused on safety, so again it's good to see them.

Living Streets are in favour of safe, enjoyable, attractive streets, so there is a common  agenda with cycling, although they are a pedestrian organization and their strategy makes no mention of cycling. There is a natural 'active travel' partnership between walking and cycling, but we should bear in mind that TfL has recently taken a 'divide and rule' approach at Blackfriars Bridge and Euston Circus, increasing pavement widths while failing to allocated space for cycling.

London Technical Advisors Group as far as I've been able to ascertain looks to be an organization of local borough engineers. As such, they have a somewhat-less-than-sparkling track record on cycling issues (with some exceptions), and there may be hidden agendas.

Lastly we have London Cycling Campaign. While it's had a somewhat ineffectual history, mainly oriented to vehicular cycling, and failing to stand up to TfL, it's recently campaigned far more effectively and is now advocating Dutch-style infrastructure.

My main concern is this. The three 'non-motorised' organizations are all charities, and have limited resources. There appears to dearth of professional experience of implementing quality cycle infrastructure as found on the Continent (this is not disrespectful of Sustrans by the way, it's just that most Sustrans infrastructure is off-carriageway and where it's not it's often compromised by the intransigent and car-centric attitudes of the local authorities that have to sign off the designs). This is hardly a recipe for success.

I'm going to leave you with this thought. One of the junctions up for review is the Stockwell Gyratory. This is a junction that was re-engineered as part of Cycle Superhighway 7, and TfL regarded it as evidence of their generosity towards cyclists that they'd removed a lane of general traffic on one side of it and put in a cycle lane. Two years on, it's regarded as so inadequate it's up for priority review. That truly is a damning indictment of TfL's failure in respect of cycling and in respect of stewardship of public money.



Tuesday, February 7, 2012

More Damned Lies and Cycling Statistics

Simon Jenkins in the Standard seems to have written exactly the same article that Andrew Gilligan did yesterday in the Telegraph. Maybe they've been hacking each others phones? Both articles sound rather like sour grapes: they're afraid that The Times' campaign on 'cities fit for cycling' may be onto something.

Jenkins starts off claiming the roads are safe, casualty rates are getting better even if the absolute numbers aren't, and, as if it were the clincher, "in 2010 the number [of cyclists] killed fell from 13 to 10." Wouldn't it be terrible if the number went up to, say, 16 in 2011? Anyway, for more detail I refer you to the answer I gave earlier.

Jenkins, like Gilligan, then goes off on in ill-informed polemic about Exhibition Road and shared space and stuff. He finishes by saying:

"Remove lights, repave crossings and 'spill the city into the street' and drivers slow of necessity. Dutch experience supports this. But it needs someone with guts to do it in London. The pity is that the regulation-loving, public-spending Times can only resort to more control. The real message of the street is that control is unsafe, that less is more."

Jenkins has forgotten something (as well as knowing very little about the subject). Exhibition Road cost £30M, courtesy of the largesse of Kensington and Chelsea council taxpayers. Removing lights and repaving crossings isn't as cheap as you think, and in any case,  it's not a solution you can use on major routes unless you really want to disrupt traffic flow. That's really getting into the realms of fantasy. If Jenkins had bothered to read the shared space literature, he would know that space only gets shared where motor traffic volumes are low enough. And if he knew anything about the Dutch experience, it's not about less control. On the contrary, there are lots of controls both to keep motor vehicles away from cycles, and to keep motor vehicles out of residential areas - the shared spaces that he seems to think are free-for-alls. In fact, as I write this I'm realising it will simply take too long to refute and correct all the nonsense in this article - it's like trying to review an article about brain surgery written by Katie Price.

Load of Bollards

There seems to be a problem with bollards at the junction of Wimbledon Hill Road and Worple Road in Wimbledon. The local paper reports:


"Bollard to blame for recent Wimbledon crashes...eight accidents happened in exactly the same way since the middle of November." 

Drivers are warned that the bollard may jump out into the road without warning. It should not be approached.

[I promise you I am not making this next bit up, but maybe the local paper did]

"Councillor David Dean...said the council needed to remove the bollard, which protects pedestrians standing on a traffic island." 

Quite right, Councillor. Pedestrians are much softer and less likely to cause damage to vehicles.

Councillor Andrew Judge said:

“This junction is very busy so we have added new road markings already to highlight the presence of the traffic island and further road markings will be provided to guide right-turning traffic safely around it."

How's that de-cluttering thing going, by the way? Naked streets, anybody?

Things to Do While You Drive - #52

Read the paper.

Trafalgar Square, 7 Feb.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Lies, Damned Lies, and Cycling Statistics

A strangely incoherent article from Andrew Gilligan in the Telegraph today. He tries to argue that cycling is getting safer in London, and this "fact" is inconvenient to those who want to blame Boris Johnson. Unfortunately, the statistics he uses don't match his argument. Whatever his argument is. See if you can figure it out, and if you can, please let the rest of us know.

Gilligan starts off:

"It’s certainly hard to think of any policy area where official interventions have been so inept."

Right there with you so far mate...


"The vast majority of British cycle lanes are either totally pointless or actively dangerous."

Sounds familiar to most cyclists...do go on...

"As a 100-mile a week London cyclist myself, I travel every day through places where TfL should do more."

Should do more? Is that the same as "inept and actively dangerous"?

"But 'carnage' there is not."

Maybe you'd like to define 'carnage' for us Andrew? As the Times points out, over 27,000 cyclists were killed or seriously injured in the UK over the last decade. I guess that must be a teddy-bears' picnic, not carnage. But irony aside, road collisions are the leading cause of death for young people, and cycling is the second most dangerous mode of road transport, after motorcycling. Nationally, at a time when the overall casualty rate for road transport is going down, the rate for cycling is going up. How is that not cause for concern?

"to say that the deaths 'went up by 60 per cent' last year, as various bloggers and journalists keep doing, is narrowly right – but broadly misleading."

Maybe you'd like to visit the bereaved partners, family and friends of that 60% - it's only 6 people after all - and explain that they've been mislead? The point surely is, those deaths should not be in vain. It seems to me pretty callous to suggest that we should do nothing about Kings Cross or the Bow Roundabout, when those locations (among many others) are 'actively dangerous' in Gilligan's words, and have been assessed as being so by TfL's own consultants.

"Allowing for the rising number of trips, the trend [in serious injuries per 100,000 trips] is, as you can see, clearly down."

What?? Down over what period? The figures Gilligan quotes are as follows:

2002 0.36
2003 0.36
2004 0.28
2005 0.25
2006 0.24
2007 0.29
2008 0.27
2009 0.24
2010 0.26

Gilligan says it would not be valid to compare two years. He doesn't tell us what he is comparing though - he just says the trend is down. While there was a downward trend until 2006, since then (as you can clearly see) the figures have gone up and down in a pretty unpredictable manner. In fact, averaged since 2004, the injury rate on the same basis is 0.26 - so the 2010 figure is the same as the long-term average since 2004. Does that look down to you? And remember we're talking about a casualty rate per trip set against a background of rising trip numbers. In that time the number of deaths and serious casualties has climbed from 340 to 467. If those trends continue, it's likely that one in three people killed or seriously injured in London in 2025 will have been riding a bike. Would that qualify as 'carnage'?

"I’m sorry if that doesn’t help the people trying to diss Boris Johnson, but there it is."

On this blog, we're not trying to 'diss' Boris in particular (you're so 'down with the kids', Andrew. I thought the Telegraph was a quali'ee newspaper).  We're totally equal-opportunities in our dissing, y'get me? We're also not driven by statistics. We're driven by the desire to do something about the needless human cost, by the knowledge that our city could be so much better if more people cycled, and by the awareness that the reason more people don't cycle is not because of statistics but because of the all-too-obvious dangers that anyone can witness if they venture very far on a bike. And Boris has done next to nothing to alleviate those dangers (not that Ken Livingstone's record is much better).

Bishopsgate Fatality

Various sources report the first London cyclist fatality of the year (the 10th in the UK) at Bishopsgate, a man in his 60s, who in a collision with a coach on Friday 3 Feb 2012. The coach driver was arrested on suspicion of causing death by dangerous driving.

Mike Penning "road safety" minister commented,

"The year-on-year rise in the number of cycle casualties may be due to the increase in cycling we have seen in recent years but we will continue to monitor these figures closely as we work to tackle this important issue."

For those of you who don't speak gobbledegook, a rough translation is "we are watching them die". Here's a thought: instead of monitoring the figures closely, you could actually do something. You can monitor the figures until you're cross-eyed, but it's not going to change conditions on the ground. Another collision in Bishopsgate is the continuation of a depressingly predictable pattern, and the historical figures tell a very simple and stark story. You don't need to be Stephen Hawking or Nostradamus to figure it out. And in what way does "the increase in cycling" in any way make the situation less serious? The fact is that Bishopsgate has always been a dangerous road for cyclists, in common with many others, and the reasons it is dangerous are very simple and well-known: you have cyclists "sharing" space with large, fast-moving motor vehicles. The "issue" (a mealy-mouthed euphamism if there ever was one) has been successfully tackled in mainland Europe. As Cyclists in the City pointed out, no-one died on a bike in Paris last year.


Friday, February 3, 2012

Danger Denial

The cycling blogosphere is getting very excited about The Times' new campaign, "Cities Fit for Cycling". This has been coming for a while. When I started this blog, the press attitude to cycling varied from indifference to outright hostility (see James Martin). However in the past two years or so there's been an observable change. The Guardian started a Bike Blog in 2009, and Ross Lydall's regular articles in the Standard have kept cycling issues on the radar. Even papers that previously scoffed at cyclists for being arrogant, lawless loonies with questionable fashion sense have softened their line somewhat.

The Times has gone a step further, devoting most of yesterday's (2 Feb 2012) front page together with a 2-page spread to an eloquent and well-informed polemic on cycle safety. And in case anyone thought they weren't serious, today they've followed up with another front-page lead story.  The campaign is in response to the tragic serious injury to one of its journalists, Mary Bowers, at the end of 2011. Which goes to show that you can only kill and injure so many people before someone starts to notice: sooner or later someone in a position of power and influence is going to be affected.

The excellent David Arditti points out that downplaying the danger issue did cycling a disservice. He has a point. When I started this blog, some cycle campaigners were behaving rather like climate-change "sceptics", desperately searching for scraps of evidence to back their optimism that cycling was either getting safer or wasn't actually that dangerous, in the hope that if disbelief were suspended long enough, you'd get a critical mass of cyclists that would bring a 'safety in numbers' effect. However, there comes a point where optimism becomes denial, and denial becomes delusion. The release of more figures today show that cycling in London has been getting more dangerous since 2007 both in absolute and relative terms (I'll discuss why in another post).

Back in 2010 I suggested that the superhighways and hire bikes would generate media interest, and wrote:

"people will die on the Superhighways. Tourists will die on hire bikes. That will make the news. There'll be an outcry over the carnage, there'll be finger-pointing and safe cycle routes could become the flavour of the month."

Mercifully, my second prediction hasn't come to pass (yet), but my first one tragically has, with two deaths at the Bow roundabout. So in a perverse, round-about way, the Superhighways may yet lead to safer cycle routes.

However, we shouldn't assess our poultry inventory just yet. The forces of darkness will be planning how to frustrate, obfusticate and obstruct the move for better cycle routes. Much work remains to be done. Although the Coalition's red-tape reducing initiative is taking away some barriers to implementing cycle infrastructure, many still remain. I hope you haven't forgotten last week's political storm in Westminster about restricting parking. Imagine what will happen when people can't park in cycle lanes any more. Many businesses still believe that a lot of their trade is dependent on nearby free parking, and the benefits of cycling on local shops are under-appreciated. The minister in charge of road safety, Mike Penning, clearly hasn't got a clue, suggesting that the main safety problem is red-light running by cyclists (according to the Transport Research Laboratory, that doesn't appear in the top 10 collision causes attributed to cyclists).

What cycle campaigners need to do next is figure out how to trim the sails to take advantage of a following wind from the media, bearing in mind that there are choppy waters ahead and we're nowhere near port yet. But enough with the hackneyed sailing metaphors. Many Tories, like Penning, are either totally ignorant or suspicious of cycling (after all, the bicycle is a relatively new invention and you have to allow a couple of centuries to elapse to let the concept sink in). But the government tend to follow where public opinion goes, so if there's a sniff of political advantage, they may yet change horses - especially as they know they'll never win an argument against bereaved widows and children. However, public opinion is fickle, and the motor industry and other vested interests have vast PR resources at their disposal. Therefore it is necessary to get commitment now rather than allow the issue to go off the boil. Perhaps the best result would be to de-politicise the issue along the lines of a Royal Commission with the goal of getting UK cycle safety on a par with the best in mainland Europe, all parties committing to abide by its recommendations.